October 31, 2025
CPI vs reality cage match
The only people who feel good are making over $200k and have large portfolios
Rich folks toast the markets while everyone else side-eyes the grocery bill
TLDR: Inflation cooled less than feared, markets cheered, but an economist warns only high earners feel okay while most households still struggle. Commenters blast the CPI as out of touch, argue over geography, push for an essentials-only index, and say data quality issues make the “good news” feel fake.
Economist Diane Swonk says the economy “looks better than it feels,” and the comments section promptly turned into a therapy group—and a roast. The big claim: only people making over $200k with fat stock portfolios are vibing. Everyone else? Counting pennies and calling out the CPI (the consumer price index) for missing real-life pain. One top theme: gaming the stats. drekipus drops the classic burn—Goodhart’s Law—arguing cost-of-living fixes can juice numbers without fixing lives, even citing Australia’s energy handouts. Another camp says the divide is geographic—“it depends where you live”—igniting a location war over rent, gas, and groceries. The nerdiest drama goes to the “K-shaped economy.” madaxe_again paints services as two separate worlds—budget vs luxury—and when the fancy crowd spends, the data screams “inflation” while regular folks feel stuck. Meanwhile, darth_avocado wants an “essentials-only” index because cheaper TVs don’t put food on the table or lower rent. Sprinkled in: suspicion about government data after staff cuts and delayed reports, with an “we want receipts” link drop from nkurz via archive. The memes write themselves: “Flat-screens don’t fill the fridge,” “CPI vs Reality,” and the crowd chanting: Cut rates if you want, but measure what matters.
Key Points
- •U.S. CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 3% YoY in September; core CPI increased 0.2%, both below forecasts.
- •Annual inflation accelerated from 2.9% in August to 3%, the highest since January, driven mainly by energy; gasoline rose 4.1%.
- •Markets expect a quarter-point Fed rate cut at the FOMC meeting next week and another in December.
- •Diane Swonk says service-sector price stickiness and a bifurcated consumer base mean the economy feels worse for most households; only high earners with large portfolios feel positive.
- •Swonk warns of deteriorating data quality: BLS staffing is down ~20% from pre-pandemic, >1/3 of CPI prices are imputed, and a recent shutdown delayed the CPI release.