November 1, 2025
Baby bust vs. border brawl
The giant basket case countries
Babies vs borders: commenters brawl over who ‘saves’ failing states
TLDR: Noah Smith warns rich nations are shrinking while poorer giants grow, suggesting immigration and even outside “stability” as fixes. The comments erupt: some say kids are too costly and immigration is politically impossible, others slam interventionism as colonial, turning the thread into babies-versus-borders with no easy answers.
Economist Noah Smith’s latest Noahpinion bombshell says the quiet part loud: rich countries are shrinking, poor countries are booming, and by 2100 several low-income giants will dominate the population charts. Cue the comments cage match over what to do — immigration, baby-making, or outside “stability”.
Top-voted pessimist pstuart says immigration is a nonstarter “in the current political climate,” adding that kids are pricey and the planet feels like it’s on fire — problems that are “technically solvable” but “not politically palatable.” Enter nickpinkston, who’s childfree but insists most people still want families; it’s the money and mood killing it. He cites countries like Russia, Hungary, and South Korea trying cash-for-kids schemes with meh results, then drops a self-own: “RIP my dating life…”
The spiciest flare-up? Smith’s line about providing “military stability” for fragile giants. password54321 blasts that as the mindset that “caused the rise of the far right.” Some push back that failed states spill chaos and migration, but the thread turns into a referendum on “saving” other nations versus fixing home first.
Background chorus: Belt-and-Road didn’t deliver (link), export-led growth is harder, and memes fly: “Make more babies or make more visas?” and “You can’t subsidize vibes” this time.
Key Points
- •Developed countries face slow growth, demographic stagnation or decline, and political turmoil, reducing focus on aiding developing nations.
- •China’s Belt and Road program is described as having limited positive impact and creating problems, contributing to China’s retreat from development promotion.
- •Protectionism in the U.S., China, and elsewhere hampers traditional export-led growth strategies for developing countries.
- •Demographic projections indicate the developed world will shrink without immigration, while the poorest countries will grow significantly through the century.
- •By 2100, six of the 15 most populous countries—and three of the top five—will be countries that had under $7,000 per capita GDP (PPP) in 2025.