January 5, 2026
Inside bets, outside outrage
A prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro's downfall
Big crypto bet wins $436k on Maduro’s capture—comments scream “insider!”
TLDR: A Polymarket user won $436k betting Maduro would fall just before Trump announced his capture. Commenters cry “insider trading,” joke about markets collapsing, and fret trust is broken, while a new bill targets government insiders and platforms insist they ban secret-info trades.
A mystery bettor just scooped $436,000 on Polymarket by wagering that Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro would be out by January—right before Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. Cue the internet: “Insider trading is legal. Crime is legal,” snapped colesantiago, while others waved the “it’s public info if you saw the planes” defense. Odds jumped from 6.5% to 11% before midnight, then surged, and the crowd smelled smoke. One account joined last month, placed only Venezuela bets, and turned $32,537 into six figures—now everyone’s asking if someone cashed in on secret intel.
The drama split the room. exogeny fumed that insider trading is a feature, not a bug, warning regular folks won’t touch crypto-style markets if they look rigged. ecommerceguy joked: can I bet on prediction markets collapsing? Meanwhile, a bill from Congressman Ritchie Torres aims to ban government workers from betting with nonpublic info, while Kalshi insists it forbids insider trades. Add Trump’s warmer stance on prediction markets and his son’s advisory roles, and the comments went full conspiracy brunch.
Whether it’s sharp eyes or sharp elbows, the community is roasting the idea that “prediction” markets stay fair when the biggest money might know the ending before the rest of us.
Key Points
- •A Polymarket user earned over $436,000 from a $32,537 bet on Nicolás Maduro being out of power by end of January.
- •Polymarket odds on Maduro’s exit rose from 6.5% to 11% on 2 January and surged before Donald Trump’s Truth Social post claiming Maduro was in US custody.
- •Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment; other users also profited significantly.
- •Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets said the trade appeared to have hallmarks of inside information.
- •Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced a bill to restrict government employees from trading on prediction markets when they have material nonpublic information.