January 29, 2026
Counting heads, losing trust
A lot of population numbers are fake
Papua New Guinea’s headcount may be off by millions—and the comments are on fire
TLDR: A UN-backed report suggests Papua New Guinea’s population could be nearly double the official count, upending its economic picture. Commenters split between colonial-skeptic hot takes, jungle survival anecdotes, and jokes about “nine-person households,” arguing that bad data means bad services and busted accountability—so the stakes are real.
Papua New Guinea’s census chaos just exploded: the government guessed 9.4 million people, but a UN-backed analysis says it might be closer to 17 million. The prime minister even admitted he doesn’t know if it’s “17, 13, or 10 million,” and says he can’t properly educate or care for everyone. Cue the comments turning this into a full-blown drama. One field-tech veteran dropped a jaw-dropping note about deploying gear in PNG’s jungle and having “rules to avoid being accused of witchcraft and burned.” That chilling detail made readers go, “Okay, counting heads out there isn’t just hard, it’s dangerous.”
Then came the hottest take: a commenter argued population stats mostly serve imperial interests, likening the piece to “a mob boss mad his accountant is skimming.” That sparked a clash over whether accurate numbers help locals (schools, clinics, budgets) or empower outsiders. A calmer voice pushed back on the article’s “this should be simple” vibe, saying most real-world questions are messy. Another comment brought the dark comedy: past data had “every single household had exactly nine people,” prompting memes about the Nine-Person Household Glitch.
There was even meta-drama: the link broke, so the Wayback Machine rescue did the honors. The mood? A mix of ethics debate, jungle survival anecdotes, and gallows humor about satellites versus sorcery—because if millions are missing, everything from aid to policy is wrong.
Key Points
- •PNG’s 2022 official population estimate was 9.4 million, extrapolated from the 2000 census (5.5 million) due to an unreliable 2011 census.
- •A UN-commissioned report in late 2022 estimated PNG’s population closer to 17 million using satellite imagery and household surveys.
- •Researchers found rural populations were dramatically undercounted, highlighting logistical and trust challenges for census-taking.
- •The discrepancy undermined PNG’s economic statistics, potentially shifting its classification from lower-middle income to lower-income.
- •PNG’s prime minister publicly acknowledged uncertainty about the true population and limitations in delivering services regardless of the exact figure.