February 1, 2026
Aliens vs Math: FIGHT!
Good if make prior after data instead of before
Should you change your mind after seeing evidence? Readers yell “duh” vs “what did I just read”
TLDR: A blog argues it’s sometimes smart to adjust your starting assumptions after seeing what the data reveals, even about aliens. Comments split between math geeks defending the logic and baffled readers calling it word salad, arguing over whether that’s clever realism or sneaky cheating—and why it matters in everyday decisions.
A brain-bending blog post tried to explain why it might be okay to pick your “prior” (aka your starting guess) after you see the evidence, using a simple good-vs-bad post example and then swerving into aliens and UFO clips. The math fans nodded, the sleep-deprived scrollers did not. The hottest comment? Cracki basically said the title made them wonder if they were having a stroke, and the rest of the thread split into camps: Team Math shouting “Bayes!” (a way to update beliefs with new info) and Team Vibes asking why we’re doing coin flips with feelings.
Drama spiked when the post hinted it’s sometimes better to adjust your starting assumptions after seeing what actually matters in the data. One side called that “cheating” and “double-counting,” while others argued real life is messy and you can’t guess the right categories before you peek. Meanwhile, UFO fans cheered the “aliens are 50/50” setup like it was a halftime show, tossing in the Gimbal and Wow! signal as crowd favorites. Jokes flew: “Bayes bros,” “update your vibes,” and “TL;DR: coin flip but with equations.” Confused readers begged for plain English; math folks posted ratios. The title alone became a meme. Everyone agreed on one thing: this post made brains do cartwheels.
Key Points
- •Explains Bayesian updating with a prior of 25% for a good post and 75% for a bad post.
- •Uses a likelihood ratio where promising words are 1.5× more likely under a good post.
- •Derives posterior odds of 0.5 and a posterior probability of 1/3 using both odds and Bayes’ equation.
- •Argues that in complex real-world problems, priors may need adjustment after examining data due to emerging sub-hypotheses.
- •Illustrates with an aliens-on-Earth example, listing anomalous evidence (e.g., Gimbal, Go Fast, FLIR1 videos, Wow! signal, UAP reports).