February 3, 2026
Data vs. Drama
Crime rates of undocumented-, legal immigrants, & native-born citizens in Texas
Texas arrest data says undocumented are arrested less — comment section goes nuclear
TLDR: Texas arrest data says undocumented immigrants are arrested for felonies less often than citizens, and those rates didn’t climb. Commenters split: data lovers cheer, skeptics cite underreporting and deportation fears, and media critics say sensational coverage shapes beliefs—proof that stats and public narratives are on a collision course.
Texas just dropped a plot twist: state arrest records from 2012–2018 show undocumented immigrants are arrested for felonies far less often than both legal immigrants and U.S.-born citizens, across violent, drug, and property crimes. The share of undocumented arrests stayed stable or fell. Cue the fireworks. Data fans cheered, with one calling it “one for the ‘actual data’ crowd.” Others said it explains why tough deportation crackdowns haven’t cut crime like politicians promise. The study leans on the Texas Department of Public Safety’s practice of checking immigration status for every arrestee, which commenters linked to.
But the pushback came fast. A popular take: deterrence, not virtue. As one user bluntly put it, if getting charged can mean deportation, you stay out of trouble—especially with booze and “crimes of passion.” Another camp doesn’t trust any crime stats, saying tons of offenses go unreported and police often shrug off cases; the vibe was “numbers are neat, reality is messy.” Then came the media-bias brawl: several users argued that when an undocumented person commits a high-profile crime, coverage goes wall-to-wall, warping public perception. Meanwhile, the memes flew: one commenter confessed to speed-scrolling the study, saw no chart, no heart, and bounced. In short, the data says one thing, the narrative machine says another—and the comments turned into a cage match over what people see, what they believe, and what the headlines choose to scream.
Key Points
- •Study uses Texas Department of Public Safety arrest data with immigration status from 2012–2018.
- •Undocumented immigrants have lower felony arrest rates than legal immigrants and native-born U.S. citizens.
- •U.S.-born citizens are >2× more likely to be arrested for violent crimes, 2.5× for drug crimes, and >4× for property crimes compared to undocumented immigrants.
- •The share of arrests involving undocumented immigrants in Texas was stable or decreasing over the study period.
- •Findings are robust to alternative population estimates, classification methods, and using misdemeanors or convictions as crime measures.