February 8, 2026
Bonds vs Bots: Who Flinched?
Do Markets Believe in Transformative AI?
Wall Street shrugs; commenters argue hype, layoffs, and whether bonds even care
TLDR: Study finds long-term bond yields fell after big AI launches, hinting markets aren’t pricing an AI boom. Commenters clash over layoffs, hype trains, and whether central banks—not robots—drive bonds, leaving a clear vibe: investors may not be buying AI’s salvation-or-doom narrative.
Wall Street’s vibe check on AI? A new NBER working paper says long-term interest rates — the boring-but-powerful numbers behind mortgages and corporate loans — actually dipped after the biggest AI model drops in 2023–24. Translation: investors didn’t see instant rocket-fueled growth; some even priced in calmer long-run outcomes, from fewer doomsday odds to no sci‑fi “post-scarcity” jackpot. Cue the comments section tossing popcorn.
The top mood? Cynical comedy. User akomtu calls AI a “slop machine” built to automate us out of paychecks — and that line became the thread’s meme-of-the-day. Then came the turf war: mono442 says AI thrives only where there’s a tight feedback loop, meaning it could swat lots of software jobs but won’t magically design bridges or jet engines. MarkusQ plays designated driver: progress is real, but the “group-think hype train” isn’t.
Meanwhile, tim333 asks the uncomfortable riddle: if super-smart AI (AGI) is five years out, do long-term bonds go up or down? The replies turned into a crash course on inflation and central banks, with many arguing money policy, not robots, sets the yield mood. Bottom line: markets blinked — but the crowd’s split between “AI will fire us,” “AI is overhyped,” and “the Fed is the only influencer.”
Key Points
- •Study examines U.S. bond yields around major AI model releases in 2023–2024.
- •Finds significant negative yield responses concentrated at longer maturities.
- •Long-term Treasury, TIPS, and corporate yields fall and remain lower for weeks post-release.
- •Asset pricing model links declines to lower expected consumption growth and/or reduced perceived probability of extreme outcomes.
- •Changes in consumption growth uncertainty do not explain the observed yield movements.