February 13, 2026
Ponzi or profits? Pick a side
What Drives Stock Market Returns?
Stock returns: Ponzi screams vs profit dreams
TLDR: The post says stock returns hinge on company profits over time, not pure chaos. The comments split into doomsday inflation takes, graph‑nerd nitpicks, and index‑investing evangelists, turning a finance lesson into a meme‑y brawl that matters for anyone trying to understand why stocks go up or down.
The article tries to calm the chaos by saying long‑term stock returns are driven by profits—not magic, and not vibes. Think of it like seasons: hard to predict next week’s weather, easier to understand the big picture. Cue the comments section, where it turns into a full‑on reality show. One camp is yelling “ponzi!” and “fake money!”, while another is waving spreadsheets and talking price‑to‑earnings (PE)—that’s just how much you pay for each dollar a company earns. A chart nerd groans that Google doesn’t even allow a log scale, sparking a mini war over graphs and whether the data ends in (2018)—aka “is this outdated?” Meanwhile, the doomers drop lines like “printing your currency to zero”, blaming money printing for everything, and a calm voice appears with a link to Bogleheads, preaching slow, boring, index investing. The meme crowd? One word: “vibes”—because sometimes stocks feel like TikTok trends. The drama boils down to this: the post says profits explain the long game; the comments say either “it’s vibes and inflation forever” or “just buy the index and chill.” Finance nerds vs doomers vs meme lords—everyone brought their popcorn, and the stock market brought receipts.
Key Points
- •Stock valuations and long-term returns are primarily driven by corporate earnings (profits).
- •Earnings yield equals earnings per share divided by price; the P/E ratio is its inverse.
- •Companies may pay dividends, reinvest earnings, or repurchase shares, all intended to benefit shareholders over time.
- •Different earnings profiles and outlooks cause wide variation in company P/E ratios and their changes over time.
- •Historically, the U.S. equity market’s average P/E is about 16, implying an earnings yield near 6%.