February 27, 2026
Trust issues, now with math
Modeling Cycles of Grift with Evolutionary Game Theory
Math says scam waves are natural; commenters clap back: be a Skeptic—or become a new Mark
TLDR: A new model says scams surge and fade in cycles as “grifters,” “skeptics,” and “marks” battle it out. Commenters split between “become a skeptic,” warnings that over-skepticism backfires, and crypto defenders protesting the rug-pull label—making this a debate about trust, not just math.
A brainy new post uses evolutionary game theory—think “survival of the sneak vs. the skeptic”—to model why scams boom, bust, and boom again. The author lays out three roles: Grifter (the hustler), Skeptic (the hard-to-fool), and Mark (the trusting type), then charts how each rises and falls over time. It’s smart, it’s got triangle charts, and it claims even fads like NFTs fade because the population shifts. But the comments? That’s where the sparks fly.
One reader goes bleak, arguing the cycle can last decades, pointing to real-world examples where grift feels like a permanent setting. Another camp loudly cheers the “meta move”: stop being a Mark, start being a Skeptic—simple, right? Not so fast, says a third voice: hyper-skepticism can make you a different kind of mark, name-checking fringe movements where doubt turns into delusion. Meanwhile, crypto gets dragged—and its defenders bristle. One fan praises the visuals but grumbles the model shrugs off all of crypto as rug pulls, insisting the math can’t explain why the coins keep coming back.
In classic internet fashion, the vibe swings from “trust no one” to “careful, that’s a trap too.” The nerdiest take tries to bolt on real-life costs like vetting and governance, basically saying: add fees and fear, and you can map which industries slip first. It’s part math lesson, part trust issues—welcome to Evolutionary Grift Theory.
Key Points
- •The article proposes a new Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) model to analyze cycles of grift.
- •EGT is presented as an alternative to rational-agent game theory, tracking strategy prevalence via payoffs.
- •The model defines three strategies—Grifter, Skeptic, Mark—with a specified payoff matrix.
- •In the model, Grifter–Grifter and Grifter–Skeptic interactions result in failed scams and losses for Grifters.
- •The proposed payoff matrix differs from the classic Hawk–Dove–Retaliator model, implying different population dynamics.