March 6, 2026
Crowns on backorder
Elite Overproduction
Too many grads, not enough thrones — comments brawl over who’s actually “elite”
TLDR: Turchin’s theory says society is minting more would‑be elites than it can absorb, fueling instability. The comments erupt over definitions—owners vs. employees, degrees vs. real power—while joking that we’re in a “Diploma Hunger Games,” and debating if post‑WWII redistribution shows a nonviolent way out.
Peter Turchin’s big idea: when society cranks out more would‑be big shots than it has seats at the table, you get chaos. He even predicted unrest in the 2020s and likened it to dry brush building up until a wildfire. The thread instantly turned into a cage match over who counts as “elite” and whether a diploma is a crown. One camp scoffs that the model is “mostly wrong but useful,” using it to frame everything from cancel culture to office politics as gladiator fights for scarce prestige. Another camp slams the article for mixing up real elites (think owners, not employees) with frustrated degree-holders, arguing it’s really about overqualified workers stuck in a shrinking job ladder.
Curious readers asked what “reversal of upward mobility” after World War II even means, while others dragged in Anti-intellectualism, suggesting backlash against “too many scholars, not enough jobs” is part of the storm. The spiciest take? That college never made elites—it just signals those who were already in the club. Cue the memes: “Too many crowns, not enough thrones,” “LinkedIn nobility,” and “The Diploma Hunger Games.” It’s a messy, dramatic comment battlefield with one shared feeling: the vibes are zero‑sum and the ladders feel crowded.
Key Points
- •Peter Turchin’s theory of elite overproduction links surplus elite aspirants to social instability.
- •The model provides probabilistic forecasts and clarifies trade-offs but does not offer precise predictions or definitive solutions.
- •Post–World War II United States is cited as a non-violent resolution via redistribution and reduced upward mobility pressures.
- •Elite self-interest—retaining wealth, resisting redistribution, restricting mobility—exacerbates inequality and fuels turbulence; underemployment and housing costs amplify discontent among graduates.
- •Historical cases (China’s dynasties, late Roman Empire, Aztec Empire, France) and Turchin’s 2010 prediction of 2020s U.S. unrest support the model; polygamy can heighten instability by expanding elite cohorts.