April 1, 2026
Graphs vs guts, who ya got?
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Readers revolt: 'Trust the aisle, not the Excel file' as stats vs street smarts go to war
TLDR: A critic says Scott Alexander’s data shows crime and even “disorder” are down, and his follow-up doubles down on the charts. Commenters erupt: some trust store aisles and wallets over stats, others argue definitions are slippery, and a few call the “cult” framing obnoxious—spotlighting a charts vs street‑sense divide.
A longtime fan just dragged Scott Alexander for worshipping the “Church of Graphs,” and the comments turned into a charts vs instincts cage match. Scott’s posts say crime is way down and even “disorder” (think litter, graffiti, tent cities) isn’t actually worse, backed by the big government victim survey and lots of neat graphs. But his audience? Not buying it—700+ comments to 360 likes is a semi-ratio in Scottland, and the mood was spicy.
The loudest chorus: stats aren’t the street. One camp pointed at drugstore aisles under lock-and-key and said, “if store owners are paying to lock up deodorant, it’s real,” trusting wallets over spreadsheets. Another camp accused the essay of semantic gymnastics—if “crime” means murder and not your bike getting jacked, of course it looks rosy. Others zeroed in on tone: calling data-skeptics a cult? “Obnoxious,” said one commenter. And for extra drama, a political angle flared up: is Scott really a “small‑L liberal,” or just wearing one like a name tag?
Between links to Scott’s crime post and his disorder follow-up, the thread devolved into memes about spreadsheet sermons vs sidewalk reality. The only consensus: the vibe on the ground feels worse than the line on the chart—and nobody agrees on what “crime” even means, let alone who to trust, the bar chart or the bodega.
Key Points
- •The article criticizes Scott Alexander’s heavy reliance on quantitative evidence, calling it “The Church of Graphs.”
- •Alexander’s post argues that declining crime rates are real, not explained by reporting bias or improved medical care.
- •He cites homicide trends and declines in property crime as evidence and uses NCVS data to corroborate broader declines.
- •In a follow-up, Alexander suggests public concern may center on “disorder” (e.g., litter, graffiti, shoplifting, tent cities) rather than crime rates.
- •The article reports notable pushback to Alexander’s first post, citing over 700 comments on 360 likes at the time of writing.