April 2, 2026
Rocket or racket?
A $1.75T IPO Would Be Overpaying 30% for SpaceX
Biggest IPO ever or hype tax? Fans say moonshot, critics say wallet shot
TLDR: SpaceX is shooting for a $1.75T IPO, which one forecast says is ~30% above fair value unless every business surges. Commenters split between “to the moon” hype, fears of a hype-fueled wealth transfer to insiders, and flashbacks to 2019’s IPO rollercoaster — with xAI’s lofty price tag getting extra side-eye.
SpaceX just filed to go public aiming for a jaw-dropping $1.75 trillion valuation — potentially the largest IPO ever — and the internet is in a fireworks show of takes. The analysis behind the headline says that price tag is “everything-goes-right” territory: a forecast pegs SpaceX at around $1.25T today, unless every arm of the empire (Starlink, rockets, defense, and the newly merged xAI) hits the gas at once.
Cue the comments. Bulls are grinning like it’s launch day. One number-cruncher notes the company may only be pulling in $12–$16B in revenue with slim profits — then shrugs and says people will still “trip over themselves” to buy. Memes? Plenty of rocket emojis and “to the moon” chants, because of course.
Skeptics are spicier than a launch abort. One commenter accuses exchange rule changes of forcing index funds to buy during peak hype, calling it a “wealth transfer” from mom-and-pop retirement accounts to the rich. Another sees a rerun of 2019’s IPO stampede: great for insiders, rough for latecomers. Others roll their eyes at a $258B tag for xAI while it’s still burning cash, and call Starship’s value a moonshot bet, not a business.
Then there’s the middle crowd: “Everyone’s reading tea leaves.” They see the narrative magic — orbital internet + giant rockets + AI — and admit the story is seductive. But does the story alone make $500B of extra value? That’s the cliffhanger.
Key Points
- •The article states SpaceX filed confidentially for a June 2026 IPO targeting a $1.75T valuation, which would be the largest IPO in history.
- •A sum-of-the-parts model across seven segments yields $1,253B at median forecasts; after $11.6B cash and ~$15B debt, equity value is ~ $1.25T—29% below target.
- •Using 75th percentile assumptions across all segments raises the total to ~ $1.675T, implying the IPO price reflects correlated, “everything goes right” upside.
- •Starlink’s three businesses total $602B (48% of segment value), while physical assets are estimated at ~$46B (2.6% of the IPO price).
- •xAI is valued at $258B (anchored by a $250B merger valuation) despite ~$430M quarterly revenue and ~$1.46B quarterly losses; Starship’s $170B is treated as pre-revenue option value.