April 6, 2026
Coin flips vs confidence: FIGHT!
Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating
Confidence quiz has folks bragging, crying “bias,” and raging at a sign‑up wall
TLDR: A fast quiz claims to measure how well your confidence matches reality, and early data shows most people are barely above random. Commenters loved the humbling punch but clashed over “gotcha” questions, a surprise sign‑up wall, and whether the tool mixes up confidence with accuracy—raising real questions about decision‑making hygiene.
A two‑minute “how bad are you at estimating?” quiz dropped, and the internet immediately turned it into a confidence cage match. The maker says the average score is just a hair above a coin flip, while most people dialed their confidence way up—cue the collective ego check. One user flexed that choosing “counterintuitive answers” gave them a high score, sparking cries of gotcha questions and calls for more “normal” facts. Others joked they got “humbled in 90 seconds,” turning the comments into a support group for overconfident brains.
Then came the plot twist: a commenter blasted a sign‑up wall—“Why do I need to sign up to get the results?”—despite the pitch promising “no signup.” That lit up the thread with growth-hack suspicions and “bait‑and‑switch” side‑eyes. Meanwhile, the maker kept dropping stats like it’s scoreboard Sunday: the best score was almost perfect, the worst was rough, and hundreds of people landed just barely above random.
But the spiciest debate? Whether the quiz confuses confidence with accuracy. One user left the slider in the middle and got labeled “overconfident,” igniting a “does this actually test what it says?” mini‑riot. Still, between the humble‑brags and self‑owns, people seem hooked on the idea of tracking decisions like a fitness plan for your brain. Verdict from the crowd: fascinating, frustrating, and very meme‑able.
Key Points
- •A free, no‑signup, 2‑minute quiz called the “Calibration Challenge” assesses confidence calibration using 10 questions.
- •Users express certainty with a slider rather than making simple true/false guesses (e.g., 75% indicates partial confidence).
- •The quiz is linked to Convexly, framed as a “fitness tracker for your decision‑making.”
- •Convexly enables quick decision logging (~30 seconds) and provides immediate behavioral insights.
- •The platform supports tracking decision outcomes over time, with options to get started and upgrade to a Pro tier.