April 7, 2026
Wind vs. Gas: Comment Cage Match
Has electricity decoupled from gas prices in Germany?
Germany’s power price plot twist? Commenters say renewables just stole gas’s crown
TLDR: Analysts say German power prices are sometimes dropping far below gas-set levels when wind and solar dominate, a sign of “decoupling.” Commenters are split: some celebrate data-backed progress, others warn about China’s solar supply chain and subsidies, while pedants clarify “gas” means natural gas—big stakes for bills and policy.
Is Germany finally breaking up with gas when it comes to power prices? A new analysis says electricity can trade well below what it “should” cost if gas plants set the price, thanks to a surge of wind and solar. The math is simple: gas cost × 1.8 plus a carbon-fee add‑on, then compare. If real prices land 20% under that bar, it’s decoupled—at least for that year. Data comes from energy-charts.info and carbon markets like EEX, so it’s not just vibes.
But the comments? Absolute fireworks. One camp is giddy that someone finally brought quant-proof to the fight—“this could knock down political roadblocks,” cheers one. The skeptics fired back with spicy sarcasm about China’s solar supply chain, with a zinger about being “over a barrel.” Another voice slammed FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and told the doomers to take a walk. And of course, the PSA brigade showed up to clarify that “gas” here means natural gas, not gasoline—because the internet never misses a nitpick.
Meanwhile, subsidy snark flew: “oil and gas famously never requires subsidies,” one jabbed, drawing laughs and groans. In short: renewables may be pushing gas off the price-setting throne more often, but the crowd is split between celebration, side-eye, and a whole lot of meme-ready one‑liners.
Key Points
- •Decoupling is defined as electricity prices no longer tracking gas due to renewables pushing gas off the marginal position.
- •Implied electricity price is calculated as: TTF gas × 1.8 + CO₂ price × 0.35, based on a ~55% efficient CCGT and 0.35 tCO₂/MWh.
- •A year is marked as decoupled if actual electricity prices are over 20% below the gas-implied level; the verdict turns YES when the current or most recent year meets this threshold.
- •Electricity price data come from Fraunhofer ISE’s energy-charts.info for the EPEX Spot DE-LU day-ahead auction; gas from ICE/IEA; CO₂ from EEX.
- •Limitations include volume-weighting bias in auction prices and use of front-month approximations for TTF gas and CO₂ annual averages.