June 8, 2026
To the moon… or the bubble?
We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
Wall Street says SpaceX is pricey, but commenters say hype will win anyway
TLDR: Morningstar says SpaceX’s IPO price looks far too high unless several huge future bets work out perfectly. Commenters mostly agree it’s expensive, but many also think hype, gambling energy, and SpaceX’s importance will keep investors buying anyway.
Morningstar came in swinging with a big buzzkill: it says SpaceX is worth about $63 a share, roughly 53% below the expected IPO price. Even more dramatic, the analysts say only their ultra-optimistic, basically best-case fantasy version of the future gets anywhere near the rumored price. Their math leans on giant ifs: reusable Starship rockets flying constantly and even data centers in space becoming a real business. The community reaction? Somewhere between "lol obviously" and "that won’t stop anyone."
The comment section instantly turned into a referendum on whether the stock market is still connected to Earth. One commenter flatly shrugged, "everyone thinks that," then argued the scarier story is that overpriced shares can still sell like concert tickets because markets are now "untethered from reality." Another went full casino metaphor, saying SpaceX is the hottest IPO in ages, tied to the US government, and that America is basically too addicted to gambling for this thing to go down anytime soon. In other words: valuation? Cute. Hype? Invincible.
But not everyone was buying Morningstar’s crystal ball. One skeptical reader mocked the analysts’ neat little percentages as "silly nonsense from analysts who build models instead of companies." Another flipped the whole argument on its head: if the most dominant launch company on Earth can still look overpriced, maybe that says less about SpaceX and more about how weirdly undervalued space itself still is. So yes, the article is about numbers — but the comments are about something juicier: is this a bubble, a national obsession, or both?
Key Points
- •Morningstar values SpaceX at $63 per share, which it says is 53% below the planned IPO offering price.
- •The firm used three probability-weighted valuation scenarios because of the wide range of possible outcomes for SpaceX’s future financial performance.
- •Two scenarios assume SpaceX can achieve rapidly reusable Starship launches multiple times per week and commercialize space-based data centers.
- •Morningstar says neither rapid Starship reusability nor orbital data-center commercialization has been solved and does not expect them to be solved until at least 2028.
- •In Morningstar’s most optimistic 'moonshot' scenario, SpaceX would be worth $1.97 trillion, or $154 per share, about 14% above the offering price.