June 10, 2026
To infinity… and your wallet
Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely
Wall Street says trillions, commenters say ‘fix the title before we fix the fantasy’
TLDR: SpaceX’s valuation is being justified by forecasts that say it could someday make trillions a year, but the article argues those numbers are wildly unrealistic for a rocket company. Commenters split between mocking the fantasy, questioning market sanity, and joking that only runaway inflation could make it come true.
SpaceX’s giant stock market debut is being pitched like the next financial moon landing: a $1.77 trillion valuation and dreams of $3.4 trillion to $4.3 trillion in yearly sales by 2040. But in the comments, people were less “wow” and more “absolutely not.” The article argues that to reach those numbers, SpaceX would need growth so extreme it would outdo almost every big company in modern history, while somehow also posting profit margins that even oil giants can’t touch. In plain English: critics think the math looks less like ambition and more like science fiction.
That skepticism lit up the discussion. One commenter deadpanned that sure, maybe it works if inflation goes completely feral and money starts melting down in authoritarian states — turning the whole forecast into a dark joke about economics. Another was stunned that markets even allow this kind of thing, calling it a sign we’ve wandered into a timeline where “sane logic” has left the building. And then there was the classic internet move: before debating trillions, someone stopped everything to complain that the headline grammar was the real emergency.
The biggest drama was over whether this is genius frontier-building or just investors copying the Tesla miracle onto another Elon Musk company because they desperately want the sequel. One commenter neatly framed the fight: is Musk truly in a class of his own, or is the market just recycling one outlier and hoping lightning strikes twice? Even a random side note asking for a “no animations” mode somehow added to the chaos, giving the whole thread the energy of a house fire where someone is politely reviewing the wallpaper.
Key Points
- •The article says SpaceX is preparing an IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, with only about 4% of shares sold publicly and the rest retained by insiders.
- •It reports SpaceX revenue rising from $4.6 billion in 2022 to $18.7 billion in 2025, and says Morgan Stanley uses a 2040 revenue forecast of $3.4 trillion to support valuation.
- •The article calculates that reaching $3.4 trillion from $18.7 billion would require a 41.5% annual compound growth rate for 15 years.
- •It argues that while similar or higher growth rates have occurred historically, those cases generally began from much smaller revenue bases, making SpaceX’s required performance an outlier when adjusted for starting size.
- •The article also says the forecast implies a 79% EBITDA margin and describes how index inclusion and lockup expirations could create forced buying followed by insider selling.