November 3, 2025
GPU gold rush or dot‑com déjà vu
Big Tech Needs $2T in AI Revenue by 2030
‘$2T or bust’: Internet calls AI spending a dot‑com sequel
TLDR: Big Tech has poured nearly $800B into AI and, according to Ed Zitron, needs $2T in revenue by 2030 to justify it. Commenters clash: some warn of a dot‑com‑style bubble, others say it’s a ruthless winner‑takes‑all race, with NVIDIA’s mega bookings and Microsoft’s brief AI revenue flex fueling the debate.
Ed Zitron’s post lit up the comments by claiming Big Tech needs a wild $2 trillion in AI revenue by 2030 or all that shiny gear was a mega mistake. He points to nearly $800 billion sunk into AI infrastructure in three years, Microsoft’s brief brag of $10–13B ARR (annual recurring revenue) from AI, and NVIDIA’s eyebrow‑raising $500B in chip “bookings.” Translation: the bill comes due, but where’s the money?
The crowd split fast. One camp yelled dot‑com déjà vu, with cmiles8 calling the spending “outright scary” and comparing it to the bubble days—cue jokes about future GPU graveyards and “dark fiber, but for AI.” Another camp went full Hunger Games, with Workaccount2 saying the goal is winner‑takes‑all: if OpenAI gets its $500B back, who cares if everyone else loses $1.5T. Meanwhile, dylan604 poked the bear: “Does NVIDIA care if buyers make money?” Ouch.
Then came the meta‑drama: andy99 dismissed Zitron as a “Gary Marcus‑like chicken little,” while masfuerte grumbled about the paywalled long intro. The mood? A spicy blend of panic, cynicism, and popcorn. Some see a bubble, some see a gold rush—everyone sees massive bets and no clear receipts yet.
Key Points
- •The article argues Big Tech needs about $2 trillion in AI revenue by 2030 to justify current AI-focused capital expenditures.
- •Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta will have spent over $400bn in capex by end-2025, on top of $228.4bn in 2024 and ~$148bn in 2023, totaling roughly $776bn over three years.
- •Microsoft reported AI revenue of $833m/month ($10bn ARR) in Oct 2024 and $1.08bn/month ($13bn ARR) in Jan 2025, then stopped reporting AI-specific revenue.
- •The Information reports $10bn of Microsoft’s Azure revenue this year comes from OpenAI’s compute spend, paid at discounted rates that cover server operating costs.
- •The article notes markets have tolerated massive AI spending without clear, consistent evidence of AI-derived revenue growth.