January 1, 2026
Forecasts vs feelings
AI Futures Model: Dec 2025 Update
AI forecast delays “coding bots” — internet melts down
TLDR: A new AI Futures model pushes fully automated coding roughly three years later, blaming slower AI-driven research gains. Comments erupted: skeptics mocked it as “vibes with sliders,” doomers felt a tiny sigh of relief, and developers joked about Jira—debating whether forecasts or gut instincts should guide planning.
The AI Futures crew dropped a fresh forecast, saying their new model now expects “Automated Coder” (AI that fully writes software) to arrive about three years later than they thought, and the comments went full reality TV. Accelerationists rolled their eyes — “here we go, moving the goalposts” — while doomers sighed with very cautious relief. Engineers showed up for the memes, quipping that if an AI can handle Jira, then we’ll talk.
The model’s pitch: it’s a clearer, unified way to predict big milestones like superintelligence (smarter than the best humans at almost everything) and you can play with it on aifuturesmodel.com. The crowd’s punchline: “it’s vibes with sliders.” Stat-heads brawled over which numbers are real data versus gut guesses, and one thread turned into a slider-pushing contest: “look, I can make ASI hit by next Tuesday or 2035.”
Fans praised the transparency and said updating the timeline based on better R&D assumptions is responsible. Critics said “longer timelines” just lull everyone and that the AI boom won’t politely follow spreadsheets. Meanwhile, meme lords posted calendars with “AGI ETA: always tomorrow.” The community can’t agree on the date, but they absolutely agree on one thing: arguing about the date is the sport.
Key Points
- •AI Futures Project released an upgraded unified model forecasting AI milestones, including Automated Coder (AC) and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI).
- •The new model projects about three years longer timelines to full coding automation compared to the prior AI 2027 model.
- •A median shift of roughly 2–4 years for full coding automation arises mainly from revised modeling of AI R&D automation and less optimistic pre-automation speedups.
- •Users can explore and adjust model parameters via the interactive site aifuturesmodel.com, which includes detailed explanations and forecasts.
- •The authors note limited expert consensus on AGI timelines and emphasize modeling as a transparent way to weigh factors and integrate future data.