February 26, 2026
Got RAM? Your phone doesn't
Smartphone Mkt to Decline 13% in '26, Largest Drop Ever Due to Memory Shortage
Phones get pricier, cheap models vanish, Apple fans gloat
TLDR: IDC expects a record 13% drop in 2026 phone shipments as memory shortages push prices up and crush cheap models. Commenters are split between “Apple wins again,” upgrade regret, and unverified conspiracy chatter about engineered shortages—with gamers nervously tossing in PlayStation delay fears.
IDC just dropped a bomb: phone shipments are set to fall 12.9% in 2026, the biggest collapse in over a decade, thanks to a global memory chip squeeze. The crowd’s reaction? Equal parts “told you so,” finger‑pointing, and memes about paying rent money for RAM.
Apple watchers are downright smug. One user notes Apple “paid a king’s ransom” for Samsung memory, another says iPhone sales rose 23% late last year and predicts Cupertino will ride this storm with “a lottt of cash.” Meanwhile Android bargain brands? Commenters think they’re toast. IDC backs that up: prices are jumping 14% and the average phone price (ASP, or average selling price) hits a record $523, likely wiping out the sub‑$100 segment. Regions that lean on budget phones, like the Middle East & Africa, could get hit hardest.
Then the drama: some speculate the shortage is being engineered—one hot take blames AI giants, citing an unverified blog post. Others widen the panic to consoles, predicting a PlayStation 6 delay. The mood among upgraders is bleak: one person swapped a Pixel 7 for a 10 and feels… nothing. If phones aren’t getting better and prices keep climbing, the comments say they’ll keep their old device—and their money.
Key Points
- •IDC forecasts global smartphone shipments to decline 12.9% YoY in 2026 to 1.12 billion units, the lowest in over a decade.
- •An intensifying memory shortage is driving the downturn, raising component costs and pressuring low-end Android vendors.
- •Apple and Samsung are better positioned to withstand the crisis and may gain market share.
- •Smartphone ASP is projected to rise 14% to a record $523 in 2026; sub-$100 devices (171M) are deemed permanently uneconomical.
- •Regional declines: Middle East & Africa (-20.6%), China (-10.5%), Asia Pacific ex Japan & China (-13.1%); recovery expected in 2027 (+2%) and 2028 (+5.2%).